Nathan MacKinnon isn’t just having a good year – he’s putting together the kind of season that can redefine the MVP race and spark fierce debate among fans and analysts alike. And this is where it gets really interesting: is anyone actually close to knocking him off as the early favorite for the Hart Trophy?
Hart race at the quarter mark
To celebrate the first quarter of the 2025-26 NHL regular season, NHL.com has released the second edition of its Trophy Tracker feature, this time focusing on the Hart Trophy, which is awarded each year to the player judged most valuable to his team by members of the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association. The goal at this stage is to take a snapshot of who is leading the MVP conversation right now, knowing full well that the narrative can change quickly as the season progresses.
In this update, Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche stands out as the clear front-runner, but he is not alone in the discussion. Rising stars like Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini, along with established superstar Connor McDavid, are also picking up significant recognition in the voting, hinting at a competitive and potentially controversial race as the season moves forward.
MacKinnon’s explosive start
In his 13th NHL season, 30-year-old Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon is off to the best start of his career, producing 39 points on 18 goals and 21 assists through his first 23 games. For context, these 39 points as well as the 18 goals are both personal bests for MacKinnon at the 23-game mark in any of his NHL seasons, underscoring how he is raising an already elite standard.
Previously, his top output through 23 games was 35 points, a milestone he reached three different times: in 2018-19 with 15 goals and 20 assists, in 2021-22 with six goals and 29 assists, and in 2024-25 with seven goals and 28 assists. When a player who has been elite for years keeps resetting his own pace, it signals a level of consistency and growth that is rare even among superstars.
Dominating the leaderboards
At the quarter mark, MacKinnon sits at the top of the League in both goals and overall points, and he ranks second in assists, making him a threat in every offensive category. This all-around production is a major reason NHL.com’s panel currently views him as the top Hart Trophy candidate.
In the panel’s voting, MacKinnon captured 14 of a possible 16 first-place votes, finishing with 70 total points in the balloting, which is a commanding 30 points more than any other player received. That kind of margin suggests that, at least for now, there is a strong consensus that he is the most valuable player to his team — but it also sets up the question: can anyone realistically catch him if he keeps up this pace?
Bednar’s view on MacKinnon
Avalanche coach Jared Bednar highlights MacKinnon’s professionalism and habits as key reasons for his consistent excellence, noting that his daily discipline naturally leads to reliable performance. From a coaching perspective, this kind of routine — preparation, practice intensity, and focus — often separates great players from merely good ones.
Bednar also points out that MacKinnon is not just repeating what he has done before; he is actually improving in crucial areas of his game, especially away from the puck. That balance between offensive firepower and defensive responsibility is exactly what many coaches believe defines a true MVP-caliber player.
Chasing multiple trophies
MacKinnon already has one Hart Trophy on his résumé after winning it in the 2023-24 season, which confirmed his status as one of the League’s dominant forces. However, despite his offensive production, he has never claimed the Art Ross Trophy as the NHL’s leading scorer in a season.
In each of the past two years, he finished second in the scoring race behind Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov, which has fueled ongoing debates about whether the “most valuable player” and the “top scorer” should be the same person. This season may be his best opportunity yet to win both the Hart and the Art Ross, especially if Colorado continues to sit among the very best teams in the NHL.
Avalanche’s blistering team start
The Avalanche are doing their part to support MacKinnon’s MVP case, opening the season with an eye-catching 17-1-5 record over their first 23 games. That start puts them at the top of the League in both wins and points, with 39 points accumulated in the standings.
When a team posts results like that, voters often look closely at who drives the success, and MacKinnon’s name naturally rises to the top. It becomes difficult to separate his individual brilliance from the overall dominance of the Avalanche, which is exactly the kind of narrative that tends to strengthen an MVP argument.
Two-way impact and checking game
Interestingly, Bednar emphasizes that this might be the best checking year of MacKinnon’s career, not just one of his best offensive stretches. For newer fans, “checking” refers broadly to how a player defends, pressures opponents, and helps win the puck back, not just physical hits.
Bednar explains that the better a player checks, the more often his team has the puck, which naturally leads to more scoring opportunities. He sees MacKinnon and the entire Avalanche group sharing a mindset built around strong checking and puck possession, and when someone with MacKinnon’s offensive skill has the puck more often, the result is exactly what is showing up on the scoresheet: a surge in goals and points.
A decade of elite consistency
The fact that MacKinnon is surpassing his own previous highs this season only reinforces how consistently excellent he has been for a long time. Remarkably, he has recorded at least 25 points in his first 23 games of every season since 2017-18, illustrating how rarely he starts slowly.
Even more impressively, he has reached 30 or more points through his first 23 games in each of the last five seasons and in seven of the past eight. Very few players manage to sustain that level of production year after year, and it’s one of the main reasons his name is always in or near the MVP discussion.
Young stars studying MacKinnon
Chicago Blackhawks center Connor Bedard, who finished second in NHL.com’s early Hart Trophy voting, describes MacKinnon as one of the most talented players in the League and notes how competitive and driven he appears to be. For a young player like Bedard, watching how a veteran star prepares and competes can be almost as valuable as any on-ice lesson.
Bedard suggests that MacKinnon seems determined to bring his best game every night, which is exactly the trait young stars want to model. This kind of mindset, combined with raw skill, provides a blueprint for the next generation of elite players trying to break into the league and make an impact.
A model for top prospects
MacKinnon’s ability to remain among the League’s top performers without falling into the trap of slow starts serves as a template for other young talents. Players such as Bedard, San Jose Sharks center Macklin Celebrini, and New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer can look at his career as an example of how to blend talent, work ethic, and consistency.
All three — Bedard in 2023, Celebrini in 2024, and Schaefer in 2025 — were selected first overall in their respective draft years, just as MacKinnon was in 2013. That shared status as top picks naturally invites comparisons and raises the question: which of them will be able to maintain the kind of high-level performance over time that MacKinnon has made look almost routine?
The Roy connection and development path
There is also an intriguing coaching connection that ties eras together. Schaefer is currently playing under Patrick Roy with the Islanders, the same coach who led the Avalanche when MacKinnon entered the NHL as an 18-year-old rookie.
Under Roy, MacKinnon steadily improved and earned more ice time as he showed he could handle bigger responsibilities. Schaefer now appears to be following a similar path, using his increasing minutes to elevate his game and demonstrate that he can perform at a higher level as his role grows.
Roy’s praise for “next-level” players
Roy has drawn a direct comparison between MacKinnon and Schaefer, saying they both possess the rare ability to raise their game day after day and sustain that elevated level. From a coach’s point of view, these are the kinds of players who push themselves so hard that they almost force the staff to keep giving them more opportunities.
He notes that sometimes there can be a temptation to protect young players by limiting their minutes, but certain talents make that nearly impossible because they continually prove they can handle more. That drive to “one-up” themselves is exactly what MacKinnon is doing this season, taking an already elite game and pushing it even higher.
Continuous improvement mindset
Connor Bedard emphasizes that what sets great players apart is their ability to maintain consistency at the highest level, not just flash brilliance occasionally. He sees MacKinnon as someone who is not only extremely talented but also constantly working on his game, always searching for ways to improve and perform at his peak.
This combination of skill, consistency, and relentless self-improvement is what keeps MacKinnon at the top of the League hierarchy year after year. It also fuels the ongoing conversation about how to define “most valuable,” especially when someone continues to raise the bar after already winning the sport’s top individual honor.
Early voting breakdown
The Trophy Tracker panel uses a 5-4-3-2-1 point system for its ballots, with players earning more points for higher placements. In this quarter-season snapshot, MacKinnon of the Avalanche leads the way with 70 total points and 14 first-place votes, solidifying his position as the early favorite.
He is followed by Connor Bedard of the Chicago Blackhawks with 40 points, Macklin Celebrini of the San Jose Sharks with 34, and Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers with 28. Boston Bruins forward David Pastrnak sits next with 26 points and the remaining two first-place votes, keeping him in the thick of the discussion.
Other notable candidates
Beyond the top group, several other standout players received recognition, reflecting how many names could enter the race if their play or their team’s performance spikes. Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson earned 18 points, while Mikko Rantanen of the Dallas Stars collected 5, showing that younger and established stars alike are on the panel’s radar.
Colorado defenseman Cale Makar and Vegas Golden Knights center Jack Eichel each received 4 points, while Pittsburgh Penguins forward Evgeni Malkin picked up 3. New York Islanders center Bo Horvat also garnered 3 points, with Penguins captain Sidney Crosby earning 1, along with Montreal Canadiens forwards Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, Avalanche goalie Scott Wedgewood, and Winnipeg Jets center Mark Scheifele, each with 1 point as well. This spread hints that the race could become far more crowded if a few of these players catch fire.
Behind-the-scenes contributors
The article also notes that NHL.com independent correspondents Stefen Rosner, Bruce Miles, and Ryan Boulding contributed to the story, highlighting that this kind of mid-season awards analysis is usually the product of multiple voices and perspectives. Having various reporters weigh in helps broaden the viewpoint and reduce the chance that the narrative is shaped by a single opinion.
That mix of inputs often leads to more balanced early-season rankings, even if fans will still argue passionately about whether their favorite player is ranked too high or too low. It also underscores how awards talk is as much about conversation and debate as it is about statistics and formal voting.
A quick look at the main contenders
Here’s a concise overview of some of the leading names mentioned in the early Hart Trophy discussion:
- Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche): Dominant scorer, reigning Hart winner, and current favorite with a strong all-around game.
- Connor Bedard (Chicago Blackhawks): Young phenom quickly emerging as a franchise centerpiece and serious awards candidate.
- Macklin Celebrini (San Jose Sharks): Another recent No. 1 pick showing he can carry a heavy load on a rebuilding team.
- Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers): Perennial MVP-level superstar who is always a threat to surge up the rankings.
- David Pastrnak (Boston Bruins): Elite goal-scorer with enough impact to shift games and attract first-place votes.
Final thought and discussion hook
Here’s the bold question that could divide hockey fans: if MacKinnon continues at this pace and the Avalanche stay near the top of the standings, is it even fair to compare his season to those of younger stars like Bedard and Celebrini, or should voters judge him by a higher standard because of his track record? Some might argue that “best player” and “most valuable” are not always the same thing, especially when comparing a proven superstar to rising talents on weaker teams.
What do you think: should MacKinnon be the runaway Hart favorite right now, or do you believe someone like Bedard, McDavid, or another name on the list deserves more love in the early voting? And here’s the part most people might disagree on — should team success matter as much as individual brilliance when picking the MVP? Share where you stand and why you agree or disagree in the comments.
